The upcoming tropical weather season will likely be above normal, according to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NOAA released its forecast for the 2025 season in a press conference this morning. Officials expect a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, with a 60 percent chance of more active year. There’s only a ten percent chance of below normal tropical development this year, due to multiple factors coming together that favor extreme development.
The forecast does not predict were storms will make landfall, only the likelihood of storm activity. Currently, 13 to 19 named storms are possible, with six to ten of those becoming hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. NOAA said it has 70 percent confidence in the current forecast.
Conditions so far indicate a weaker wind shear, one of the major factors in disrupting storm growth. Sea water temperatures are also high, and there is the potential for a shift in the West African Monsoon, which would push storms into the same areas known for producing long-lived, powerful storms.
In the 20 years since Hurricane Katrina – then the deadliest storm in U.S. history – technology has improved dramatically, said Ken Graham, head of the National Weather service. New forecast models allow meteorologists to provide information on potential inland dangers with greater accuracy. The infamous “cone” has now been narrowed, as specialists can reduce the likely impact area from more than 400 miles to 225, allowing for better planning and response by emergency officials. Other product enhancements include forecast models that extend to three weeks, up from the current two weeks, so planners have more time to make decisions about response.
Graham also emphasized the need to focus on impact and landfall, not the category of a storm. Locally, the near-tropical system that flooded Brunswick County and parts of Columbus last year technically was not a hurricane – but it caused more damage than some named tropical storms. The new modelling will help predict such impacts far outside the actual landfall of storms, and do so more accurately.
“The other factors at play, flooding, spinoff storms, heavy wind—they have to be considered,” Graham said. “Even a tropical storm can cause potentially deadly conditions in your neighborhood. There’s no such thing as a minor storm.”
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