CCN Weather Update for Thursday October 23, 2025.
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Here’s today’s Bottom Line
We do have a high fire danger for today, given low humidity values this afternoon.
Otherwise, the quiet weather will continue through the weekend. The biggest question-mark for the entire forecast is the potential for one or more low pressure systems to develop offshore beginning Monday. Depending on the strength and track, this/these could bring some decent rains to the area. The Euro deterministic is advertising quite the system offshore Monday into Tuesday, while the GFS shows hardly anything. I’m going with partly cloudy but a 30% chance for rain Monday and Tuesday…. stay tuned.
Use caution if doing any burning, things are getting real dry, and that’s not likely to change anytime soon.
TROPICS: Let me preface this by stating that I believe Melissa will pose absolutely no threat to the Carolinas.
She WILL become quite the monster, as she basically sits still over the record-warm Caribbean Sea water.
The hurricane models are going “all in” on this, and they usually do quite well with intensity predictions. I believe we’re going to see a rapid escalation toward cat-4 or -5 by the weekend.
Here’s a look at some of the modeling for this coming Monday, courtesy Tropical Tidbits.
The official National Hurricane Center forecast calls for a northerly crawl for the next several days, followed by a sharp turn to the west. This is a low-confidence forecast, though, and there’s plenty of time to watch. Model trends still lean toward a hard northeast turn, lifting over Hispaniola and east of Florida into the Atlantic… but that’s rather low-confidence as well.
No tropical threats to the Carolinas, and no other areas are being monitored at this time.
Here is your Freedom Insurance Today-plus-Five Forecast:
–Meteorologist Christopher Cawley
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