Meteorologist Christopher Cawley here with your weather update for Tuesday evening, November 19, 2024.
One final warm day for a while expected on Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front which will move through during the evening hours. Southwesterly wind flow brings tropical moisture along and ahead of the front… some of which is coming from the former Tropical Storm Sara. Scattered showers are expected across the county. Don’t be surprised if there is a rumble or two of thunder as the high-res short-term model shows a bit of instability nudging in during the late afternoon, just ahead of the frontal boundary. There’s something of a cap in place and the CIN numbers are rather robust, so if there are rumbles of thunder, I don’t think we’re looking at anything significant.
Overall the rainfall potential doesn’t look all that impressive. Model blends are coming in at a quarter of an inch or less across the county.
The cold front moves through Wednesday evening bringing an end to the rain threat and ushering in sharply colder air. Temps will drop to the lower 40s Wednesday night with breezy conditions developing.
Thursday will feature wall-to-wall sunshine but our highs will struggle to reach 60 degrees. Gusty westerly winds will also make it feel quite a bit colder at times.
Thursday night will be the first night we have a threat for frost. I expect temps to drop to between 36-39. The only question will be the wind. The PGF looks like it will lessen up a bit but there may be enough of a wind that the atmosphere remains “stirred up,” thus lowering our frost chances. If the winds die down, the frost chance increases.
Friday will remain sunny, with temperatures running about where they should be for late January… highs will be in the mid to upper 50s.
Scattered to widespread frost is much more likely Friday night into early Saturday as high pressure becomes situated virtually overhead. Winds go calm, skies will be crystal clear, and temps drop to between 33-37. Some areas north and west of Whiteville may briefly drop below freezing around sunrise Saturday.
Another bright sunny day for Saturday. Temps will continue to run below normal, reaching a peak of around 60.
More frost expected Saturday night and early Sunday as skies remain clear and temps drop to between 33-37 once again. Once again, some areas out of the city may drop below freezing around sunrise on Sunday.
Temps start a rebound on Sunday, reaching the mid 60s… reaching around 70 by Monday… and into the mid 70s by Tuesday. Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, it appears we will have a continuation of dry weather and temps in the 70s. GFS shows another cold front approaching by Black Friday… that’s a little far off right now for forecasting.
Frost Potential:
Thursday night: Isolated areas.
Friday night: Scattered to widespread.
Saturday night: Scattered to widespread.
Sunday night: Isolated areas.
FREEZE (below 32 degrees) potential:
Thursday night: None
Friday night: Slight chance
Saturday night: Slight chance
Sunday night: None
Tropics: Nothing doing. Nada. Zilch. The NHC is looking at quiet conditions across the tropics over the next 7 days. The latest European model cyclone tracks shows nothing of interest over the next 10 days. Long-range GFS out through December 5 shows a low pressure center running along the northern coast of Honduras, but nothing else. Other 10-day model suites including the Korean and UKMET also show no areas of interest carrying us through the end of the tropical season. I will continue the tropics subsection in this report through November 30th (the end of the season).
That’ll wrap it up for this update. Thank you for reading, and as always, take care.
Be the first to comment