Weather Update – Monday September 15, 2025 – CCN

CCN Weather Update for Monday September 15, 2025.

This weather update is sponsored by Freedom Insurance of Whiteville. No weather worries with Freedom Insurance. For home, car, boat, or whatever you need, Freedom can provide customized coverage to keep you and your family safe. Contact Freedom today at 910-640-2828!

Here’s today’s Bottom Line

A *non-tropical* area of low pressure has formed on a stationary front off the North Carolina coast. This low will slowly, and I sure do mean slowly, drift westward, eventually over the Outer Banks by Wednesday, before being jettisoned north/east by building high pressure toward the end of the week.

There will be a bit of a pressure gradient between this low and high pressure to our west, creating breezy conditions at times today, especially this afternoon, as well as an increasing threat for showers as we move through the day.

The rainfall forecast is super-low-confidence. Modeling ranges from 2-3 inches of rain across the county (GFS) to absolutely nothing (Euro). The latest NWS Model Blend analysis shows generally a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain for Columbus County, but as you get north of a line from Fayetteville through Elizabethtown through Wilmington, the rainfall ramps up quite a bit to amounts over an inch.

The trends are for the more extensive forcing moving off to our north, but I’m going to put a 50% on our chart for this afternoon through tonight, dropping to 30% through about midday Tuesday.

High pressure settles in on Wednesday bringing dry conditions through the end of the work week and into the weekend, with temperatures warming to a little bit above seasonal normal values.

TROPICS: Still watching a tropical wave just to the west-southwest of the Cape Verde islands. This is still somewhat ragged and disorganized, being impacted by dry air and shear. However, it will move into an area where the shear is near-zero and an abundance of moisture exists. The National Hurricane Center anticipates this becoming a tropical depression at some point this week as it continues to drift to the west-northwest.