The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook has been released, and El Nino could be North Carolina’s best friend this year — maybe.
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2026 tropical forecast this week. NOAA is currently calling for below-normal activity due to the intensifying El Nino, an atmospheric condition that fluctuates annually.
Strong El Nino conditions tend to starve tropical systems of the energy they need to strengthen. At the same time, record high ocean temperatures and weaver trade winds could balance out tropical conditions, NOAA said.
NOAA is calling for eight to 14 named storms, where the normal for a season is 14. Three to six of those may become hurricanes (As opposed to the normal average of seven) and one to three might be major (the normal number is three).
Officials urged residents not to put too much stock in forecasts of a lighter season. Category 5 Hurricane Andrew, which tore a swath through Florida, came in an El Nino year. Tropical and sub-tropical systems can also bring heavy rains and flooding, even without a hurricane.
“All it takes is one hurricane to define a season, regardless of the outlook,” NWS Meteorologist Steve Pfaff said. “Given southeastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina’s hurricane history our communities must prepare the same way every year.”
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